Business Cycles: Theory and Empirical Methods by Willi Semmler (auth.), Willi Semmler (eds.)

By Willi Semmler (auth.), Willi Semmler (eds.)

In macrodynamics and enterprise cycle research we discover these days various ways elaborating frameworks for learning the fluctuations in monetary and fiscal info. those techniques are considered from Keynesian, monetarist and rational expectancies standpoints. There at the moment are additionally a variety of empirical equipment for the checking out of nonlinear info producing mechanisms.
This quantity brings jointly a range of contributions on theories of the enterprise cycle and new empirical tools and synopsizes the hot effects. the amount (i) offers an outline of present versions and smooth suggestions and instruments for interpreting the company cycle; (ii) demonstrates, the place attainable, the relation of these versions to the historical past of commercial cycle research; and (iii) offers present paintings, surveys and unique paintings, on new empirical tools of learning cycle producing mechanisms.

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A major reason for the decline from favor of the endogenous cycle hypothesis concerns the inadequate behavioral foundations of the early models of this kind. The stability results obtained for many simple equilibrium models based upon optimizing behavior with perfect foresight-in particular the celebrated "Turnpike theorems" for optimal growth models-doubtless led many economists to suppose that the endogenous cycle models were not only lacking in explicit foundations in terms of optimizing behavior, but also depended upon behavioral assumptions that were necessarily inconsistent with optimization.

Zamowitz, V. 1985. " Journal of Economic Literature 23, 523-580. 2 COMPETITIVE MARKETS AND ENDOGENOUS CYCLES: AN EVALUATION Michele Boldrin 1. Introduction A proper assessment of the impact that nonlinear dynamics has had on the field of business cycle theory requires first an understanding of what the dominant paradigm of research in economic dynamics was fifteen years ago, and still is today. The idea that market mechanisms are inherently dynamically unstable has always played a minor role in studies of economic fluctuations, and this has changed only marginally over the past quarter century.

Goldstein, J. 1988. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven: Yale University Press. Goodwin, R, 1951. "The Nonlinear Accelerator and the Persistence of Business Cycles. Econometrica 19, 1-17. Gordon, R A. 1951. Business Fluctuations, Harper and Row, New York. , and Senge, P. 1980. " Technological Forecasting and Social Change 17, 283-311. , and Yorke, J. 1982. " Physical Review Letters 48, 1507-1510. Hogarth, R, 1987. Judgment and Choice. 2nd Edition. Chichester: John Wiley.

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